Statistical or Dynamical? Which Model To Choose

In an earlier post ‘Model This and Model That’, we looked at some of the models used in the modelling and prediction of ENSO, collated and plotted by the IRI/CPC. We learnt a little about what statistical models and what dynamical models are, and touched on some of the reasons for these different types of models. The modeller's knowledge and experience, and the basis of what the model is for, all contribute to the type of model that is built. Another large factor in deciding what type of model to build comes down to resources. These resources include man power, computer power, time and availability of parameter data. For example, temperature is the most widely available meteorological data, as well as having the longest record of observations, whereas solar radiation is harder to obtain.

You may have noticed that there are more dynamical than statistical models used in the IRI/CPC plots. To be precise, there are 17 dynamical, and 9 statistical models used. So what does this say..? Is it as simple as dynamical models are better than statistical ones because there are more? Here are some of the advantages and disadvantages of both statistical and dynamical models to give you more of an understanding in why one would be built and used over the over.

Statistical

Advantages:

• Models are relatively quick and simple to build and run
• Little to no knowledge of underlying physical principles is required
• Simple analytical methods allows fairly easy model inversion

Disadvantages: 

• Model incorporates many parameter assumptions under certain observation conditions, meaning confidence of extrapolation is hard to justify
• The model does not enable further understanding of the physical processes

Dynamical

Advantages:

• Can be applied to a wide range of conditions
• Incorporates great complexity of processes via the use of numerical solutions
• Increases understanding of physical processes

Disadvantages: 

• Needs powerful computers to run complex models, which still can take long time to run
• All relevant processes  and corresponding variables need to be accounted for in the model
• Complicated to invert model due to difficulty in obtaining analytical solutions

Over the past few decades, a large proportion of models have improved in their ability to predict El Niño episodes (Guilyardi et al., 2012). These improvements are down to a combination of reasons including more advanced technology to observe and record data at a higher spatial resolution. Such improvements ultimately lead to more understanding of the physical processes of ENSO, which also enables improvements to the models to be made. It is thought that the reason behind those who haven’t significantly improved their skill is due to the additional processes that the models are now simulating. Such processes include; the carbon cycle; ecosystems; the indirect effect of aerosols; and, the interaction between stratosphere and troposphere (Guilyardi et al., 2012). However, the short term consequence of these additional processes and model complications not initially adding anything to the model, gives potential areas to explore and improve understanding of in the near future. This is where the conflict between over simplifying or over complicating a model comes into play. Simple models can be very powerful tools, but sometimes maybe they are just missing the mark when it comes to usefulness. Statistical models are usually simpler than dynamical models, as we found in the advantages and disadvantages of the model types above.

In the early 1990’s the statistical and dynamical models used for the study of ENSO showed comparable skills (Barnston et al., 1994). This was reinforced later in the 90’s by model predictions of the exceptionally strong El Niño in 1997/98. The forecasts from twelve statistical and dynamical models were studied, with results concluding that skills were again of similar levels (Landsea and Knaff 2000). None of the dynamical models conclusively performed better than the El Niño–Southern Oscillation Climatology and Persistence (ENSO–CLIPER) model, a simple statistical model, which was used as the baseline for comparison of model skill levels. Hence, it could be argued that statistical models where the preferred type due to the ease and lower associated cost of development.

A more recent study of the statistical and dynamical models used in the IRI/CPC plots from 2002 to 2011 was undertaken, with 8 statistical and 12 dynamical. The study found that despite only analysing the models over a short period of time (9 years), the skill of dynamical models have now exceeded those of statistical models, specifically for months March to May when shifts in ENSO are most likely, therefore making predictions most difficult (Barnston et al., 2012). Yet, it is also acknowledged that the short period of time in which the models were studied means that it is hard to prove the findings statistically robust, but within its limited time frame intriguing results nonetheless. Dynamical models have received greater funding than statistical ones over the past few decades, meaning that the majority of statistical models analysed have not been drastically altered in many years. This may play a part in why the dynamical models have shown to have better predictive power than their statistical equivalents. However, dynamical models are proving the potential they hold due to their capability of modelling the non linearity and rapid change of state of ENSO (Barnston et al., 2012). Without denying the value of statistical models, it seems that dynamical models will be at the forefront of modelling El Niño, especially with the continuing development in technology meaning the power of computers increase, and the associated costs decrease.

So I’ll finish by going off topic, but to wish you a very Merry Christmas! Without even doing any scientific analysis, I can (unfortunately) say that to a 5% significance level there is sufficient evidence to reject the hypothesis that it will snow on Christmas day of 2015 (if you’re in England that is). 

Source: Buzzfeed

Here’s hoping you didn’t place a bet that I advertised near the beginning of this blog... however if you did, remember, I did warn you that I wasn’t to blame if you lost! Enjoy the festivities wherever you may be, and whatever you may do, and we’ll catch up again in the New Year!

Over To You

In the spirit of COP21 some of my fellow Environmental Modellers have been suggesting ways that we can, as individuals, contribute to the ethos of green living – Any Earth Left has been giving some great ways how we can make a positive impact on reducing our emissions as a consumer, and The Global Hot Potato has been providing some yummy environmentally friendly recipes to whet your appetite.

So, how else can I play my part I hear you ask?

Well, a team of climate scientists over at the University of Oxford have developed a novel way that you can contribute to the challenge we face of climate change. Albeit not by reducing emissions, and without even leaving the comfort of your home. Climateprediction.net is ‘the world’s largest climate modelling experiment for the 21^st century’, which boasts a community of volunteers to run climate models from their home computers, via computing platform BOINC (The Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing).

As I’ve mentioned in earlier posts, the importance of modelling the environment is paramount to understanding, learning, and predicting, what has, is, and will happen in the future given certain conditions. When this comes to the climate, we have to do so in large scale, hence, the number of climate models to be run is vast. Vast enough, that even supercomputers struggle. Instead, teams in the Environmental Change Institute, the Oxford e-Research Centre, and the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, departments at University of Oxford have adopted a technique called ensemble modelling which means thousands of people each run a tiny part of the climate model on their personal computers (you don’t need anything fancy, but there are a few system requirements), and then send back the results for them to be interpreted. The site assures volunteers that the greenhouse gas emission generated by leaving your computer running for longer than you might otherwise do is very small.

There are some really interesting projects currently underway including:

• Assessing the risk of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) collapse in the coming century (see RAPID-RAPIT)

• Investigating the response of rainfall, evaporation, and river run off, to changes in land use and the carbon cycle (see HYDRA)

• What the impact of stratospheric aerosol particles and solar radiation management would be (see Geoengineering)

Over the past few months, in certain lectures, it’s often been said that even Climate Change students don’t see themselves as modellers. With this facility from the University of Oxford, now everyone can call themselves modellers, and I think even more impressively, climate modellers. 

Model This and Model That

Continuing from my previous post where we looked at ENSO forecasts into the spring of 2016, we shall now look at some of the different models used. First though, what is a model? Succinctly put, a model is a simplified version of a complex reality. Ok, good start, but let’s go deeper within this field and try to learn what statistical models, and dynamical models, are.

                                                                                  

Statistical Models

A statistical model allows us to infer things about a process from its observed data, and is represented through a set of variables. The model is constructed through 1 dependent variable, and at least 1 independent variable. The dependent variable (aka the response/outcome), is what is being studied and is the result of a combination of the independent (aka explanatory) variables. In a simplified case, this may mean that each independent variable has no relationship with any of the other independent variables.  Or, is more often the case, there are relationships between them, and these interactions are statistically known as correlations. Both dependent and independent variables can be observed and recorded, and what with a set of assumptions about the data, parameters (the unknown constants in the equation) can be estimated. An important part of a statistical model to be aware of is that it is non-deterministic. What this means is that some of the variables are stochastic, i.e. essentially random. Hence, a statistical model uses random variables to model the components of the process that are not currently fully understood scientifically.

Let’s take a look at 3 of the statistical models used by the IRI as shown in my previous post:

CPC MRKOV – Is the National Centres for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Centre (NCEP/CPC) Markov Model. It is a linear statistical model with three multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), of observed sea surface temperature, surface wind stress, and sea level. EOF analysis is the decomposition of a signal in terms of both temporal and spatial patterns. 

CPC CCA – Is the Climate Prediction Centre Canonical Correction Analysis Model. It is a multivariate linear statistical model with predictors mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature. Canonical correction analysis is a method to find the maximum correlation of a linear relationship between two multidimensional variables.

FSU REGR – Is the Florida State University Regression Statistical Model. It is a multiple linear regression model with predictor variables of upper ocean heat content, wind stress, and sea surface temperatures. 

Dynamical Models

A dynamical model, as with a statistical model, represents the relationship between a set of variables, however it uses functions to explain how the variables change over time given their current state. These functions which are related to their derivatives are known as differential equations, and can be thought of as the rate of change.

An extremely famous example of a non-linear dynamical model is the Lorenz model. Edward Lorenz took the Navier-Stokes (fluid dynamics) equations and simplified them to get 3 differential equations, with only 3 variables (I won’t go into the equations now, but take a look here if you wish to learn more about them). However, the point is they seemingly look very simple to solve, but plotting the solutions in 3D leads to an image such as the following:

Source: LorenzAttractor

If you were to place your finger at any point on the line in the above plot, and wanted to move say 1 position to the left (i.e. only 1 of your 3 variables in the equations change by 1 unit) it would take a lot longer than expected. You can’t jump over the white space between the lines; you have to trace your finger round the line until you reach your ‘destination’. Now, you can see that this is going to take a lot longer than you would have thought! This is a system of chaotic behaviour, and is commonly known as the butterfly effect. A small change in one variable can result in massive changes in a later state.

Now let’s take a look at 3 of the dynamical models used by the IRI as shown in my previous post:

NASA GMAO – Is the NASA Global Modelling and Assimilation Office, Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5). It is constructed from an atmospheric model, catchment land surface model, and an ocean model, which are all coupled together by the use of the Earth System Modelling Framework.

UKMO – Is the UK Met Office General Circulation Dynamical Model. It is a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM known as the GloSea (Global Seasonal) model. It is comprised of 3 models - an atmosphere, an ocean and a land surface model.

LDEO – Is the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Model. It is an improved version of the original simple coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical model by Zebiak and Cane, 1987.

Statistical-Dynamical Models

There also exist statistical-dynamical models, which, as is in the name, use a combination of both statistical and dynamical methods for different components. They usually take the statistical approach for parameters such as wind speed and direction, whilst using a dynamical method for modelling Newton’s Laws of Motion for energy diffusion.

Why all the models?

You may wonder why there are so many different approaches to modelling ENSO, and even within the different approaches, why so many different models exist. Well, as can be seen from looking at just a few of the different types of models above, there are numerous combinations of predictor variables are used, and all models incorporate different assumptions. Depending on the modellers’ knowledge, experience, and what their aim of modelling is, depends on what these variables and assumptions are. Hence, there exists such a variety of models. Models cannot be categorised as right or wrong, however they can be shown to be more or less predictive in comparison to other models. But even this may hold true for only a certain period of time.

A Momentous Moment in Time

As I’m sure you’re aware, in a few days time the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will meet for the twenty-first session of the Conference of Parties (COP21). Over 190 nations will gather in Paris to discuss a collective agreement on climate change, with the aim of staying within the 2^oC global warming target.  

                                            

Despite a GlobeScan poll on behalf of the BBC suggesting that public support for a global deal on climate change has declined, I hope that the outcome will reignite general public conversation and support. It’s important that everyone gets on board with this, as the conference will not only address CO₂ emissions, but also how business is conducted in terms of production and farming. Collectively, consumers can have a lot of power which needs to be utilised.

It’s likely there’s also going to be something else quite momentous going on at the same time as the COP21 summit... the peak of the 2015 El Niño event.

The scatter plot (Figure 1) and Table 1 below were produced by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), showing forecasts made by a variety of dynamical and statistical models for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Nino 3.4 region (120-170W, 5N-5S) for nine overlapping 3-month periods using observations taken in October 2015.

Figure 1: Niño 3.4 SST Anomaly (^oC) predictions from dynamical and statistical models for Nov 2015.

Source: InternationalResearch Institute

As can be seen, for all models, the highest point lies in the Nov(15) – Dec(15) – Jan(16) period. The differences between the model predictions are the result of two main factors. The first, and most obviously, being the construction of the model. Models are not able to fully capture an entire process, they are tools enabling us to analyse, predict, and learn about a process, and hence there will always be a degree of uncertainty within them. The second reason for differences is the actual uncertainty in the forecast. Forecasts made between June and December generally have a better skill* due to the reasoning that this is when El Niño events are active. As might also be expected, skills usually decrease as lead time increases.  

*A forecast “skill” is the level of accuracy a model forecasts in comparison to a reference model.

The figures in Table 1 below give average SST values for the different model types, supporting the trends seen in the scatter plot. 

Table 1: Average Niño 3.4 SST Anomaly (^oC) for given models over seasonal 3 month periods in 2015 – 2016.

Source: InternationalResearch Institute

Most of the models predict El Niño SST to slightly increase in strength until about the end of the year, and then gradually weaken through 2016. Although the El Niño will be steadily dying away, it is expected to still be a strong force through the first 4 or so months of 2016. The associated probabilities with these predictions is at least 99% up to around Feb 16, then exponentially falls away to about 50% by May – July 16.

Figure 2 below shows a longer term trend of model predictions, emphasising the strength of the El Niño which we are currently experiencing. It also shows the model forecasts for the past 21 months in addition to the Nov 2015 predictions (as seen in Figure 1). It allows us to see the evolution of model predictions as more data is gathered from the progressing conditions. Models are continually updated and re-run when new data is obtained to produce up-to-date forecasts and analysis of the processes at play.

Figure 2: Niño 3.4 SST Anomaly (^oC) predictions from dynamical and statistical models for 22 months.

Source: InternationalResearch Institute

The high SST anomalies that are being seen mean that the ocean is unable to absorb as much heat as it otherwise would during these months. This factor along with CO₂ levels breaking records and reaching a massive 400.35ppm, is what is causing the expectation that 2015 will be the hottest year on record.

Join me next time when we’ll look at what dynamical models and statistical models are, the differences between them, and why these different types of models exist for the modelling of ENSO.

El Niño in the Anthropocene

We’ve looked at the argument that El Niño is causing global warming, (and we’re hopefully all in agreement that it is obviously not) now let’s take a look to see whether global warming is affecting El Niño. 

Source: Flaming Planet by ImFayth

First, let’s just remind ourselves of a few things. Global warming is the increase in the temperature of the Earth’s surface, oceans and atmosphere. The fourth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated, with over 90% confidence, that the majority of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid 20^th century is as result of the increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. In a study of 11,944 peer-reviewed scientific literatures from 1991 – 2011, it was found that over 97% of climate scientists agree that anthropogenic global warming is as a cause of human activity, and not a natural occurrence (Cook et al., 2013). What the other 3% are thinking..? Well, let’s not get into that again!

This blog started with considering how much the oceans have warmed during the anthropocene, and we now know a little about the interaction between the ocean temperature and the atmosphere, (in particular El Niño episodes), so what, if any, effect is global warming having on El Niño?

One report proposed that a doubling in the occurrences of extreme El Niño events will be seen due to greenhouse warming (Cai et al., 2014). In the report, an extreme El Niño event is characterised by a massive reorganisation of atmospheric convection which leads to austral summer rainfall greater than 5mm per day over a defined area. The result partly comes from the non-linear relationship found between sea surface temperature and rainfall, and meridonial (equator to mid-latitudes) sea surface temperature gradients and rainfall. As can be seen in the plotted points in each of Figure 1 a and Figure 1 b below, if a line were to be drawn joining them they would both be a curve. There is an exponential increase and an exponential decrease in rainfall associated with an increase in SST and meridonial SST gradients, respectively.

Figure 1 a,b: Evolution and nonlinear characteristics of observed extreme El Niño events. (Niño3 area: 5◦ S–5◦ N, 150◦ W–90◦ W).  

Extreme El Niño, moderate El Niño, and La Niña and neutral events, are indicated by red, green and blue dots respectively.

Source: Cai et al., 2014

A report by Hansen et al, 2006, claims there will be an increase in intensity of El Niño events, but the effect on frequency is still unclear. Whilst Kim et al, 2014, deduced that there will be a time-varying response of ENSO to global warming, with an increasing trend in amplitude before 2040, and thereafter a decreasing trend.  

However, another report concluded that it is not yet possible to say whether there would be a change in frequency or strength of events due to the complex year to year variability of ENSO (Collins et al., 2010). Many processes play a part in determining ENSO characteristics, and the effect of global warming would increase them. However, these processes involve both positive and negative feedbacks; hence the uncertainty lies within these feedbacks and, essentially the report suggests they could cancel each other out.

It seems that it we do not currently have enough information to give a unanimous conclusion on whether global warming is going to increase the frequency and intensity of El Niño events (Guilyardi et al., 2012). But what we do know is that potentially global warming will increase the events and hence have catastrophic effects on our environment, from flooding to drought. This highlights the importance of needing to model ENSO activity. Modelling allows us to learn more about the processes by discovering underlying trends, as well as being able to simulate ‘what if?’ scenarios. What if sea surface temperatures rise by X^oC? What if sea levels rise by X inches? Considering these situations is the start of either stopping, or, if unavoidable, preparing for them.  

Planet Ocean

If you watch any film this week - let it be this. 

Planet Ocean is a powerful documentary by Yann Arthus-Bertrand which highlights the importance of the ocean in the ecosystem. 

Be absorbed into the beautiful cinematography, and learn how imperative it is that humankind lives in harmony with the oceans. 

"Nature doesn't tolerate excess"

Global Warming? Blame it on El Niño

Somehow it’s already that time of year again… November. Bam, its Christmas! Oxford Street lights have been switched on, Mariah Carey will soon be wailing out of every speaker, and what everyone is desperate to see, (don’t fret, there’s not long to wait) the 2015 John Lewis Christmas advert.

So, as tradition says, you have to buy your nearest and dearest presents. But what to get that person who has everything? I have the answer. This: 

Source: Designed by Words & Unwords for Zazzle.com   

If you’re not feeling the t-shirt, not to worry, you can get the same design on a mug, tote, or for that really special person, how about a badge?

Stylish and educational, don’t you think?  

The results of a study (McLean et al., 2009) stated that at least 68% of the variance in global tropospheric temperature anomalies (GTTA) is accounted for by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), i.e. ENSO. This raises to 81% accountability in the tropics.

They are some large percentages. So maybe the t-shirt isn’t being sarcastic after all?

“The close relationship between ENSO and global temperature, as described in the paper, leaves little room for any warming driven by human carbon dioxide emissions.”

This is a quote taken from the press release related to the paper by one of the authors, R. M. Carter.

Hmm, now I’m really hoping the t-shirt is, as I first thought, being sarcastic.

So how did McLean et al come to such a bold conclusion? Well, essentially by removing the long term upward trend of the global tropospheric temperature anomalies. This trend can be seen by the GTTA line in Figure 1.



Figure 1: Twelve-month running means of SOI (dark line) and MSU GTTA (light line) for the period 1980 to 2006 with major periods of volcanic activity indicated

Source: McLean et al., 2009

A mere -0.223 correlation is found between the pre-transformed variables, suggesting a very weak negative correlation. However, when both the SOI and GTTA data is transformed into time derivatives, a correlation of -0.847 is found. This is now suggesting a very strong negative correlation, and thus forms the basis for the study’s conclusion. However, these time derivatives are calculated by subtracting the 12 month moving average from the same average for data 12 months later. It is said this transformation is to remove noise, but this herein lies the problem, as it removes the linear upward trend of the temperature data. Therefore a strong correlation will be found, as it has been recognised that El Niño has a strong effect on short term global temperatures but that it cannot account for the long term trend (Santer et al. 2001, Lean and Rind 2008, Foster and Rahmstorf 2011).

In fact, in direct contrast to McLean et al., 2009, it has been suggested that El Niño has had a slight net cooling effect on global temperatures (Fawcett, 2007). This has also been noticed for the period 1979 to 2005 by Lean and Rind, 2008, and for the period 1979 to 2010 by Foster and Rahmstorf, 2011.

I hope we are now all in agreement that global warming is not the fault of El Niño? Please drop me a comment if you have any questions.

Finally, if you do decide to buy the t-shirt for someone this Christmas, hopefully you’ll now have enough knowledge to share over your turkey (or vegetarian equivalent) dinner.





The 3 depictions of El Niño

Earlier this week I attended a talk by George Adamson of Kings College London, titled “Gilbert Walker, the Moché and an angry sea god: the two histories of El Niño”.  For those of you who weren’t there, he opened with the three different representations of El Niño that simply come from searching in Google Images.

The first type is scientific images and diagrams, such as can be seen in my previous post. The second type is photos showing the shocking human and environmental impact, such as:

Source: Live Mint

“El Nino in 2009 turned India’s monsoon patchy, leading to the worst drought in nearly four decades

 and helping push global sugar prices to their highest in nearly 30 years.”

Source: Armor Glass
“Houston, June 2001 - 30,000 became homeless after the storm flooded over 70,000 houses and
destroyed 2,744 homes.”

These photos really hit home the devastation that El Niño brings to crops, homes, and more. I believe they have also contributed to developing a third kind of representation:

Source: Paul Duginski, Los Angeles Times, August 2015

Source: INKCINCT

Being associated with powerful masculine destruction, El Niño has been personified, and characterised in the form of cartoons as shown above. They are in stark contrast to the real effects of El Niño and bring a sense of humour and light relief, to an otherwise destructive occurrence.

I found these different representations of El Niño fascinating so wanted to share them with you – I hope you do also! A quote from the talk by George Adamson which I think sums this up nicely; “El Niño is both a force upon, and a product of society”.